The Folding of Space, SOF, and Cyber: Conflict for Humanity Unfolding... [Part 1]

A Four Part Series: Part 1

This is a four part series focusing on the Space-SOF-Cyber construct, often termed ‘Triad’ and ‘Nexus’ in various defense circles. In this series, I will unpack the concepts, discuss different issues and tensions, and address certain security considerations with AI, emerging technology, and strategic shifts that may shape what future conflict becomes for our species as we venture into becoming a multi-planetary species yet still able and willing to wage war.

Special operations forces (SOF) and activities, military forces utilizing the space domain and cyberspace all contribute to an expansion in complexity, scale, and scope of conflict over the last two decades. While space, SOF, and cyber activities reach back into the twentieth century (and earlier for SOF), the last twenty years have metastasized unique and game-changing developments. Although space and cyber domains require significant technological, informational, and resource investments to produce mature military effects within them, the intersection of Space-SOF-Cyber (henceforth termed SSC) is not a recent phenomenon. The First Gulf War was the first example of a space war, while the recent Russian escalation in 2022 of the Russo-Ukrainian War presents the first demonstration of cyberattacks on space assets as part of a military campaign.^[1] Recent Israeli and American strategic strikes on Iran demonstrate a sophisticated combination of advanced technology, deception, intelligence gathering and kinetic actions requiring space and cyber capabilities.

Historically, this intersection of Space-SOF-Cyber is not groundbreaking, in that combinations of these three have manifested in earlier (immature) formats stretching back to the 1990s for cyber, and arguably back to the 1960s for space-SOF. Those earlier examples are limited in several ways, yet they did lay necessary defense groundwork for what is emerging now. Nation states defined the twentieth century- and space was only reachable using instruments of state power (NASA) for nearly all of that period. The twenty-first century is defined by the non-state actor, specifically super-empowered organizations and rare individuals capable of assuming state-like IOP capabilities for temporary or even, in SpaceX’s case, enduring fashion. Commercial enterprises are not yet exchangeable with military IOPs in any direct sense, due to legal and international norms. What I am suggesting is that in space, the next several decades may see a return to earlier ‘East India’ styled defense entities that operate through commerce, yet work toward mutually supporting strategic goals of a national sponsor.